Sprint Reportedly Bowing Out of T-Mobile Bid (was "Sprint offer" and "Iliad" threads)

[WiWavelength]

Comcast is already a monopoly, now they're going to be a bigger one.

 

Judge Greene is long since dead.  And I am getting older.  But maybe I will live to see the Comcast break up consent decree.  Probably not.  

 

The military-industrial complex?  Ike knew what he was talking about 50 years ago.  The lobby-corporation complex, that is likely what we have to live with for the next 50 years.

 

AJ

[lordsutch]

I don't see the satellite radio precedent as particularly compelling. XM and Sirius were both drowning in debt and weren't really competing to retransmit the same product; instead they were both independently producing 100+ radio stations, with a minority of content coming from third parties.

 

As for Comcast, as Fraydog points out cablecos, almost as a rule,* are either in a terrestrial market monopoly or (in the areas with U-verse or FioS) otherwise low-competition market. For example, Marion County FL is divided up between Cox and Comcast, yet there's probably not a single address in the entire county that you can choose between them. If Cox and Comcast merged, there would be no loss of competition on the consumer side. On the other hand, merging AT&T and DirecTV (or a hypothetical Dish-VZW, although Charlie has never indicated any interest in selling his baby at a commercially reasonable price) does lead to a loss of competition for consumers, just as a merger between Sprint and T-Mobile would.

 

My prediction: post-merger, Legere would just coast on his "rock star" image, much as post-AirTran Southwest has given up on aggressively competing with the big players, coasting on its image as the low-fare option when it no longer really is (and dismantling one of the airlines that did aggressively compete with the majors, for example by offering an affordable first-class product, in the process).

 

* There are rare exceptions, but I've lived in over a dozen cities and never had a choice of landline cable company.

[JThorson]

I hope this merger gets approved because Sprint cannot afford to lose $2billion at this point. If this merger gets approved how long would it talk to have everything under one umbrella network wise? Also how quickly could this merger be shot down?

 

I kinda question Son now only because it seems like he's giving up on Sprint. He said that Sprint would be a powerhouse but it just feels like he's more invested in buying T-Mobile than repairing Sprint and regaining customer trust again. I fully believe that Sprint can pull a T-Mobile but I think he realizes now that alot of work needs to be put into Sprint. So I guess a merger and the elimination of the Sprint brand will be the easy way out...but someone correct me if I am wrong.

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If something happens and T-Mobile gets the $2 billion breakup fee, Sprint is in deep s**t. I don't think they could survive if that happens. As for Son, he is a smart man, but I see where you're coming from. He has put some time into building up Sprint and the network and you feel like going after T-Mobile he is giving up on Sprint. I don't think he really cares about Sprint so much. He just wants to have a company in the US so he can try and be a major player over here. If there is an announcement of a merger, I hope Sprint gets it just because I don't want to see them lose that money. Masa Son is taking a big risk but without risk there is no reward, only time will tell.

[gnoj]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2259433-sprint-and-t-mobile-merger-only-plausible-way-to-make-telecoms-competitive

 

 

I don't think the comparison this chart makes is fair, unless the cash flows represent either all 4 parent companies, or just their wireless subsidiaries. Of course Sprint and TMUS are going to have less cash than ATT & Verizon, because those companies also operate home phone and broadband businesses, among other things. Whether or not this merger gets approved, once Sprint's future status is resolved, I think it's likely that Son will make a further investment to boost Sprint's capex, rather than bailing the US market or letting the company continue to tread water.

 

The two networks will have to be operated in parallel for a little while until they are fully integrated. Both LTE networks will be available to the other network, provided that you have a newer phone. I would think that newer Sprint phones will be allowed to use WCDMA for voice going forward. WCDMA + LTE will be added to all 2g T-Mobile sites + all non-colocated Sprint sites. I am of two mind about band 26 LTE. I would rather they implement WCDMA on band26 so that all subscribers (T-Mobile + Sprint) benefit from better voice coverage.

 

By the time this merger would get approved and finally close, VoLTE and eSRVCC should be much more mature technologies. It would seem to make more sense then to refarm all W-CDMA carriers but one (reserved strictly for grandfathered TMUS devices, international roamers, and M2M) straight to LTE.

 

So you'd have (Vo)LTE over 4-6 bands (depending on whether or not 700A and AWS are divested, and including LTE 600), plus 1xA 800 and the reserved W-CDMA carrier in PCS. That W-CDMA carrier would also eventually be refarmed once utilization rates get low enough, and the rest of the world has deployed (Vo)LTE.

 

SoftBank will hopefully allow any unlocked LTE device to be activated on the network (abandoning Sprint's closed-off whitelist system, and without having to pair the UICC with the device's IMEI/MEID), but presumably only "NewCo's" devices will continue to offer CDMA BC10 for 3G fallback. Everything else - GSM, GPRS, EDGE, 1x in PCS, and Ev-DO - would be consigned to history.

 

When the ATT merger failed, didn't DT use most of the break up fee for its Europe operations? I would assume that would be the case with this. Every one instantly thinks the break up fee goes to Tmobile. DT gets the cash since they are the parent company.

 

This. I don't understand why everybody (including the media) keeps saying that Sprint would be paying T-Mobile a breakup fee. If there is a breakup fee to be paid, it will be SoftBank paying DT, which is only right, since this deal is all Masayoshi Son's doing. The only possible negative for Sprint would be increased competition from T-Mobile if DT opts to invest the money in the US. SoftBank will suffer a minor blow, but their credit rating can't be cut any further, and they have plenty of cash coming in from the Alibaba IPO, so Son should absorb that loss just fine.

 

Unlike DT, which has wanted to unload TMUS for some time, I still believe Son is invested in Sprint for the long haul. If the merger goes south and TMUS does wind up with that cash, it would undoubtedly strengthen their hand and allow the current 4-player market to remain competitive.

[CaptainSlow]

I'm no business expert but let me float a nightmarish idea I've been having for several weeks: could and would Softbank pull a Google/Motorola/Lenovo? They've owned less than 100% of Sprint for less than year so they may not be necessarily "emotionally invested" in Sprint. Could they take the good parts of Sprint, say the B41 spectrum, combine with T-Mobile and sell off the remaining Sprint, to Dish maybe?

Softbank gets a resurgent T-Mobile with a network configuration closer to home (UMTS, AWS FD-LTE, B41 TD-LTE) run by a maverick/popular CEO, plus global partnership with Deutsche Telecom, Dish gets to combine it's spectrum with Sprint's on NV equipment, FCC gets four competitors... everyone, umm, wins?

The only thing Softbank doesn't gain is scale in the US but it does give them bigger scale for handset and telecom equipment negotiations.

 

As a former Motorola Photon user, I was thrilled when the Google-Motorola deal was announced, only to have the dream of amazing hardware+software shattered a year later when Google sold an eviscerated Motorola to Lenovo. What a waste.

[IamMrFamous07]

Random but do you guys think Sprint should bid for Dish instead of Tmobile?

 

I mean Dish does have wireless spectrum and not to mention buying Dish wouldn't reduce any competition...

[IamMrFamous07]

What was stopping the duopoly from getting EBS before? Just lack of caring? It's not like EBS spectrum was expensive or unavailable for a long time.

 

Yes I'm aware VZ made a bid for Clearwire as "Party J" but that wasn't until 2013.

 

Verizon could probably buy Dish without issue with the way the FCC adjusted the spectrum screen.

They could be lying but VZW has already said they do not want to buy dish

 

http://www.thewire.com/technology/2014/05/verizon-absolutely-does-not-want-to-buy-dish/371252/

[bigsnake49]

Sprint could also acquire Dish. Granted they will have to divest their spectrum and it is a non-growing business, but they get a steady income and they get licenses to conent which they can use to serve the OTT crowd. The option has been bandied around for a while. But to acquire Dish they will have to get around Ergen. Whoever acquires Dish will have to grossly overpay. So somebody tells me Dish will stand by itself for a little while. I foresee a partnership with Sprint with respect to using EBS for fixed broadband and or a spectrum swap.

 

Remember that TD-LTE has to allow for the uplink so a 20MHz 3:2 TD-LTE channel is equivalent to a 12MHz FD-LTE downlink. So if Sprint can swap some EBS spectrum for Dish's 25x5Mhz spectrum adjacent to PCS-G, they will end up with a 30x10Mhz adjacent contiguous spectrum. Which is not bad at all.

 

For me the Dish angle is the most interesting one in the Sprint-TMobile merger. I mean we can argue till kingdom come whether they should divest EBS vs PCS or EBS vs AWS. But we all know that Dish wants to play. I can't wait to see what hand they will be dealt and how they will play it.

[avb]

That $2 billion break up fee could go a long ways in the 600mhz auction.

[JeffDTD]

Well, verizon and att combined spent more than 16B in the 700mhz auction. 2B is worthwhile for reserved bidder spectrum, but nothing against the duopoly

 

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[S4GRU]

If something happens and T-Mobile gets the $2 billion breakup fee, Sprint is in deep s**t. I don't think they could survive if that happens. As for Son, he is a smart man, but I see where you're coming from. He has put some time into building up Sprint and the network and you feel like going after T-Mobile he is giving up on Sprint. I don't think he really cares about Sprint so much. He just wants to have a company in the US so he can try and be a major player over here. If there is an announcement of a merger, I hope Sprint gets it just because I don't want to see them lose that money. Masa Son is taking a big risk but without risk there is no reward, only time will tell.

$2 Billion is chump change in this deal. Son can afford to write that check, no problem. And while Tmo would enjoy $2 Billion, it really just compensates them for the distraction of trying to merge. They really aren't profiting much. This really is a fair break up fee, for the most part.

 

Robert via Samsung Note 8.0 using Tapatalk Pro

[Rawvega]

Random but do you guys think Sprint should bid for Dish instead of Tmobile?

 

 

I'd actually say yes except for the likelihood of having to deal with a recalcitrant Charlie.

[JeffDTD]

What does Sprint get by owning Dish that it wouldn't get in a network sharing agreement with Dish?

[joshnys8913]

IF Sprint an T-mobile DO merge I wish they would have a BRAND NEW name that has nothing to do with Sprint or T-mobile in the name.  A brand new name would be refreshing to see.  I have absolutely nothing against either company or company names obviously, I just think it would be nice to change it to something new, both companies have have had both good and bad pasts and if the merger would be done the combination would be a new beginning so to speak. (remember Sprint did do that SMALL name change but they added the Nextel to the end though)....

 

This is just my opinion, I know the name change would probably never happen but just thought I would put it out there....  

[bigsnake49]

What does Sprint get by owning Dish that it wouldn't get in a network sharing agreement with Dish?

They get a steady stream of income...with not a lot of capex.

[JimBob]

IF Sprint an T-mobile DO merge I wish they would have a BRAND NEW name that has nothing to do with Sprint or T-mobile in the name.  A brand new name would be refreshing to see.  I have absolutely nothing against either company or company names obviously, I just think it would be nice to change it to something new, both companies have have had both good and bad pasts and if the merger would be done the combination would be a new beginning so to speak. (remember Sprint did do that SMALL name change but they added the Nextel to the end though)....

 

This is just my opinion, I know the name change would probably never happen but just thought I would put it out there....  

What new name do you want.

[jamisonshaw125]

Spark mobile

 

 

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[Fraydog]

I'd go with Spectrum, but Charter is already using that name in its newly rolled out broadband services.

 

Sprint buying Dish would make sense but the way the FCC has set the spectrum screen would make that hard. It's pretty clear to me the government doesn't like Sprint having such a large position of BRS/EBS.

[WiWavelength]

What new name do you want.

T-Bagadouche

 

AJ

[VW Maverick]

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/analysts-if-sprintt-mobile-deal-goes-ahead-carrier-would-need-cut-prices/2014-06-10

 

Mav.

 

Sent from my Sprint Tri-Band LG G2.

[Fraydog]

http://opensignal.com/reports/state-of-lte-q1-2014/

 

SoftBank does really well. Sprint does not.

[jamisonshaw125]

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/analysts-if-sprintt-mobile-deal-goes-ahead-carrier-would-need-cut-prices/2014-06-10

 

Mav.

 

Sent from my Sprint Tri-Band LG G2.

Tony Chen is the most annoying creature alive.

 

 

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[Rawvega]

http://opensignal.com/reports/state-of-lte-q1-2014/

 

SoftBank does really well. Sprint does not.

 

Interestingly T-Mobile USA, while faster than Sprint, also falls into their "Poor Coverage and Slow" box.

[Fraydog]

Interestingly T-Mobile USA, while faster than Sprint, also falls into their "Poor Coverage and Slow" box.

All the American providers do shitty, even holy St. Verizon (sarcasm guys!)

[bigsnake49]

Tony Chen is the most annoying creature alive.

 

 

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Who is Tony Chen? Craig Moffett, now he is definitely annoying!

 

and this whole articles is about comparing ARPU of uncarrier plans vs subsidized plans. Apples and oranges.