Softbank - New Sprint - Discussion

[maximus1987/lou99]

Nothing. But they aren't mutually exclusive. I'm just saying that Dish might have some use for some of Sprint's spectrum.

At the end of the day, you're right: money is money even from an enemy. But unless Charlie ponies up BIG time - and his track record indicates he won't - it's a distraction for sprint to prop up Dish by adding another set of panels for band 24. Remember, sprint still has to add panels for 600 MHz and possibly the upcoming AWS band 3 auction. Unless ATT or Verizon picks it up, apple's not gonna include band 24 in an iphone.

 

The problem with Charlie is that he HAS cultivated a reputation of being an unpredictable poker player and no one wants to do business with someone like that ... unless Charlie's shows sprint the money ... but he won't.

Edited August 6, 2013 by qpotlk1134

[cletus]

 

"Junk" status, really? If that's true the ratings agencies don't know what they're talking about. If you count wholesale subscribers, their subscriber count is rapidly growing. There seems to be a new Sprint MVNO every other day...

 

Junk status is appropriate. Softbank took on a huge liability in Sprint and junk status is reflective of future risk, not present optimism. To keep up the planned CapEx ALONE for Sprint, Softbank will have to take on probably $15-20 billion more in debt. Actually I believe the figure was $8 billion for 2013 and 2014 and then $6 billion per year for AT LEAST 4 more years after that. That is simply an enormous amount of money to finance for a company that lost something like $50 billion over the last 8 years.

[linhpham2]

At the end of the day, you're right: money is money even from an enemy. But unless Charlie ponies up BIG time - and his track record indicates he won't - it's a distraction for sprint to prop up Dish by adding another set of panels for band 24. The problem with Charlie is that he HAS cultivated a reputation of being an unpredictable poker player and no one wants to do business with someone like that ... unless Charlie's shows sprint the money ... but he won't.

Logically, Sprint should ignore Ergen and Dish. But given Sprint's management's decision history (e.g., Nextel), I wouldn't put it past them to make a deal with Dish. Beggars can't be choosers, unfortunately...

[cletus]

Logically, Sprint should ignore Ergen and Dish. But given Sprint's management's decision history (e.g., Nextel), I wouldn't put it past them to make a deal with Dish. Beggars can't be choosers, unfortunately...

Good news then. Following the Softbank purchase, Sprint has moved from beggar to Welfare recipient or Sugar Baby depending on your viewpoint. 

[maximus1987/lou99]

Junk status is appropriate. Softbank took on a huge liability in Sprint and junk status is reflective of future risk, not present optimism. To keep up the planned CapEx ALONE for Sprint, Softbank will have to take on probably $15-20 billion more in debt. Actually I believe the figure was $8 billion for 2013 and 2014 and then $6 billion per year for AT LEAST 4 more years after that. That is simply an enormous amount of money to finance for a company that lost something like $50 billion over the last 8 years.

Yeah but you have to look at WHY they lost do much money.

 

Also, US is still an incredibly high arpu country. I read a quote from a European telco exec saying that METROPCS' arpu of $40 was "wonderful". Think of all the profits ATT and Verizon have been able to gobble up. ATT's annual DIVIDEND alone is $10 bil with leftovers for capex, share buybacks, opex.

 

When son is done annihilating duo, people won't call Son a genius but they'll call Deutsche Telekom stupid for trying to escape the us market and for not investing when all it needed was a few billion more.

[ChadBroChillz]

Logically, Sprint should ignore Ergen and Dish. But given Sprint's management's decision history (e.g., Nextel), I wouldn't put it past them to make a deal with Dish. Beggars can't be choosers, unfortunately...

 

You do realize that the management in charge of the Nextel deal is long gone, right?

[linhpham2]

Good news then. Following the Softbank purchase, Sprint has moved from beggar to Welfare recipient or Sugar Baby depending on your viewpoint. 

IIRC, Softbank isn't planning on giving Sprint any more money beyond the $5 billion specified in the buyout agreement.

[dedub]

I suspect that dish is 'indicating' they won't 'meaningfully participate' in the H block just so sprint will think they could get an easy lock in, then once sprint bids, then charlie will come around and try to out bid them again.

[linhpham2]

You do realize that the management in charge of the Nextel deal is long gone, right?

I know Gary Forsee, the ex-CEO, is gone. Not sure about the others.

[cletus]

IIRC, Softbank isn't planning on giving Sprint any more money beyond the $5 billion specified in the buyout agreement.

I believe it is highly likely that Sprint will seek money through Softbank financing due to the access Softbank has to cheaper financing on the Japanese bond market.

[maximus1987/lou99]

IIRC, Softbank isn't planning on giving Sprint any more money beyond the $5 billion specified in the buyout agreement.

No one except son himself could know if that's really true. Son is not gonna treat Sprint like DT treats TMO: Son is gonna nurture sprint and be understanding.

 

If Sprint is spending $8bil again next year, it's gonna have to be more debt... I don't see Sprint profitable until 2015 when NV is finished AND gmo sites are upgraded AND TDD is widespread and dense enough for word of mouth to advertise sprint.

But then they're gonna get into acquiring us cellular and building out where Verizon is sole roaming partner so it'd be amazing if it breaks even 1h2015.

[maximus1987/lou99]

Logically, Sprint should ignore Ergen and Dish. But given Sprint's management's decision history (e.g., Nextel), I wouldn't put it past them to make a deal with Dish. Beggars can't be choosers, unfortunately...

Current sprint is not a beggar. Sprint wouldn't even take Charlie's money in 2011 when it WAS a beggar.

Charlie is screwed.

[linhpham2]

I believe it is highly likely that Sprint will seek money through Softbank financing due to the access Softbank has to cheaper financing on the Japanese bond market.

IIRC, Sprint's debt rating is higher than Softbank's. So, Sprint should get better terms if it sells its debt directly (rather than thru Softbank) on the japanese market.

[linhpham2]

No one except son himself could know if that's really true. Son is not gonna treat Sprint like DT treats TMO: Son is gonna nurture sprint and be u

understanding.

I've never heard of "nurture" being used in business relationships. I expect Softbank to be very demanding. Softbank only owns 80% - so maybe not to the point of a master-slave relationship though.

[DaQue]

At the end of the day, you're right: money is money even from an enemy. But unless Charlie ponies up BIG time - and his track record indicates he won't - it's a distraction for sprint to prop up Dish by adding another set of panels for band 24. Remember, sprint still has to add panels for 600 MHz and possibly the upcoming AWS band 3 auction. Unless ATT or Verizon picks it up, apple's not gonna include band 24 in an iphone. The problem with Charlie is that he HAS cultivated a reputation of being an unpredictable poker player and no one wants to do business with someone like that ... unless Charlie's shows sprint the money ... but he won't.

I don't expect Sprint to do much with 600 Mhz. Triband service is tough enough to work out.

[DaQue]

I found this interesting 

 

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/analyst-sprints-nationwide-25-ghz-lte-network-could-be-boon-tower-companies/2013-08-01

 

This part in particular:

 

" New Street Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin wrote in a research note that he expects Sprint's total cell site count to increase to somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 sites"

 

Robert will never get caught up on sleep from all those long rollout update all nighters.

 

If this is not the right thread for this feel free to move it just PM me where it went.

[linhpham2]

I found this interesting 

 

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/analyst-sprints-nationwide-25-ghz-lte-network-could-be-boon-tower-companies/2013-08-01

 

This part in particular:

 

" New Street Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin wrote in a research note that he expects Sprint's total cell site count to increase to somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 sites"

 

 

The more curious tidbit is: "Chaplain noted that the estimated new 12,000 to 17,000 Sprint macro sites will replace around 16,000 Clearwire sites that will be decommissioned." 

 

I guess that most of the Clearwire sites couldn't be upgraded to full NV sites or are poorly located to be much use.

[maximus1987/lou99]

I don't expect Sprint to do much with 600 Mhz. Triband service is tough enough to work out.

What do you mean? Sprint won't bid at all because 3 bands is enough? I disagree.

 

ATT: 2, 4, 5, 17, 29, 30

Verizon: 2, 4, 5, 13

TMO: 2, 4

Sprint: 26, 25, TDD 41

 

Do you remember what Verizon was able to do with nationwide 10x10 700 MHz? Make billions. And that was with tower density being extremely low even for 700 MHz, as current VZW subs can attest.

 

With 10x10 600 MHz and 1xA voice on ESMR, sprint can economically serve rural areas.

[DaQue]

The more curious tidbit is: "Chaplain noted that the estimated new 12,000 to 17,000 Sprint macro sites will replace around 16,000 Clearwire sites that will be decommissioned." 

 

I guess that most of the Clearwire sites couldn't be upgraded to full NV sites or are poorly located to be much use.

as Robert said  " approximately 5,500 Clearwire sites colocated with Sprint.  Or, 40% OF 14,000."  so about 8,500 are not colocated.

 

The numbers still seem a bit odd.To get to 50,000 if we have 38,000 now you would have to add all 8,500 non colocated sites and 3,500 more.

[DaQue]

What do you mean? Sprint won't bid at all because 3 bands is enough? I disagree.

 

ATT: 2, 4, 5, 17, 29, 30

Verizon: 2, 4, 5, 13

TMO: 2, 4

Sprint: 26, 25, TDD 41

 

Do you remember what Verizon was able to do with nationwide 10x10 700 MHz? Make billions. And that was with tower density being extremely low even for 700 MHz, as current VZW subs can attest.

 

With 10x10 600 MHz and 1xA voice on ESMR, sprint can economically serve rural areas.

So ATT sells 6 band LTE phones?

[maximus1987/lou99]

So ATT sells 6 band LTE phones?

Iphone 4 contains 2,4,5,17

 

Other bands are 29 (supplemental down 700 MHz) and 30 (WCS).

Phones with those will be coming ???next year???

 

Verizon/sprint iphone 5 is 1,3,5,13,25

 

Band 3 is actually a superset of band 4 so it's useful for Verizon (I think).

Edited August 6, 2013 by qpotlk1134

[DaQue]

Well ok. I thought I read somewhere that just getting a 4 band LTE was a first not long ago. I guess I was wrong.

[WiWavelength]

Iphone 4 contains 2,4,5,17

 

iPhone 4 does not support LTE.

 

AJ

[bigsnake49]

Current sprint is not a beggar. Sprint wouldn't even take Charlie's money in 2011 when it WAS a beggar.

Charlie is screwed.

 

Except it was not money, it was capacity. They did not need capacity, they needed hard cash.

[IamMrFamous07]

http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/sprint-envisions-completing-network-vision-mid-2014/2013-08-06

 

 

Not surprised but I'm not disappointed. I want sprint to build a superior network and hopefully it's worth the wait once they are done