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Verizon Seen Owing Apple Up to $14 Billion for IPhones

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-10/verizon-seen-owing-apple-up-to-14-billion-for-iphones.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

Verizon Wireless may end up owing Apple Inc. (AAPL) as much as $14 billion in purchase commitments over time if the mobile carrier fails to sell an agreed number of iPhones, a report from Moffett Research LLC said.

 

Under a multiyear deal signed with Apple in 2010, Verizon Wireless is obligated to buy $23.5 billion worth of iPhones in 2013 alone, according to Craig Moffett, a telecommunications analyst who left Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. earlier this year to start his own research firm. Since the purchase commitment is more than twice what Verizon Wireless sold in 2012, the company may have a shortfall of $12 billion to $14 billion, worth $4 to $5 per share, Moffett said in the report.

 

The report suggests sluggish demand for the iPhone, which accounts for about half of Apple’s sales. Other wireless providers around the world may be experiencing iPhone sales deficits as well, Moffett said. The sales shortfall bolsters analysts’ projection for Apple to report a 22 percent decline in net income to $6.87 billion in the third fiscal quarter, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

 

“It is likely that Apple would be reluctant to simply ignore these commitments, since many other carriers around the world are probably in a similar situation, and a simple amnesty would set an unwanted precedent,” Moffett wrote. “It is therefore unrealistic to think that Apple won’t extract some consideration for renegotiating these shortfalls.”

 

Trudy Muller, a spokeswoman for Apple, and Brenda Raney, a spokeswoman for Verizon Wireless, declined to comment on Verizon’s iPhone purchase commitments.

 

Sprint Commitments

Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), which began selling iPhones in 2011, will probably be able to meet its commitment to buy $15.5 billion worth of iPhones over four years “barring any hiccup in Sprint’s rate of handset sales or the popularity of the iPhone,” Moffett said.

 

Scott Sloat, a spokesman for Sprint, didn’t have an immediate response.

 

Verizon and Sprint’s contractual obligations with Apple may be the reason why some carriers are holding out on partnering with the Cupertino, California-based company, Moffett said.

 

Apple has announced fewer than a dozen new wireless-service providers to sell iPhones since September 2011, leaving the total at about 240. Many carriers balk at working with Apple because of the conditions it imposes. Holdouts include China Mobile Ltd. (941), the world’s biggest phone company, as well as carriers in countries such as Japan, India and Russia, representing billions of potential customers.

 

To contact the reporter on this story: Olga Kharif in Portland at okharif@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Pui-Wing Tam at ptam13@bloomberg.net

 

 

This would be interesting, if accurate, simply due to the sheer volume of crap that Sprint has taken on the internet from the haters over their deal with Apple.

 

Probably broke Muppett's heart to not spew any venom on Sprint.

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Just further validation of the quality of Hesse's leadership, after all the crap that was spewed at Sprint when no one knew the terms of any of the other carriers deals. 

 

In Apple's defense (odd, putting those words together), Verizon has not branded itself an "Iphone Carrier" to the extent that Sprint has pushed it's Iphone.  I believe Verizon could sell more Iphones if they pushed them in lieu of some of the Droid stuff.  Verizon could also let the Iphone into its direct prepaid offerings. 

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I see it by looking around and looking at the numbers online as well, the market share of iPhones is dwindling.  Most of the iphones I see are used by kids, and hear quite a few people handing their phones down to their kids since they upgraded to larger devices.  I will withhold any personal comments as they could be taken as an iphone bashing and we don't need another thread of that. 

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Just further validation of the quality of Hesse's leadership, after all the crap that was spewed at Sprint when no one knew the terms of any of the other carriers deals.

 

Indeed. If Moffett is correct (something I never assume), then VZW would need to sell $8B more iPhones in 2013 alone than Sprint has to sell in four years.  :o

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Moffett has his facts wrong.

 

A $23.5 billion commitment for 2013 alone would mean that VZW would need to sell around 35 million iPhones just this year, at the average sale price of just over $650 per iPhone.

 

It should be obvious, but VZW never agreed to such a thing. That's nearly 9 million iPhones per quarter, which is roughly the total volume of smartphones that Verizon is moving. Moreover, in 2010 that volume of smartphone sales was unheard of. 

 

Digiblur is, however, no more correct in stating that the market share of iPhones is dwindling--at least in the U.S.

 

iPhone market share has been increasing--consistently too--at all of the carriers. AT&T and Verizon now sell the iPhone at a rate of roughly 70% combined of all their smartphone sales. (and AT&T is around 80% iPhone sell-through alone).

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Moffett has his facts wrong.

 

A $23.5 billion commitment for 2013 alone would mean that VZW would need to sell around 35 million iPhones just this year, at the average sale price of just over $650 per iPhone.

 

It should be obvious, but VZW never agreed to such a thing. That's nearly 9 million iPhones per quarter, which is roughly the total volume of smartphones that Verizon is moving. Moreover, in 2010 that volume of smartphone sales was unheard of. 

 

Digiblur is, however, no more correct in stating that the market share of iPhones is dwindling--at least in the U.S.

 

iPhone market share has been increasing--consistently too--at all of the carriers. AT&T and Verizon now sell the iPhone at a rate of roughly 70% combined of all their smartphone sales. (and AT&T is around 80% iPhone sell-through alone).

 

This may be true, but this does not take into account many other mitigating factors such as replacement phones, early upgrades, outright sales, etc.  Even though market share is increaseing, it is just a larger slice of the whole pie.  It is the underlying explanations as to why, and i think those are in my first sentence. 

 

The iphone has it's uses, but they are not for everyone.

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I guess the articles were wrong a while back about Android gaining more than 50% market share. Could you please send a link to the numbers stating Apple is more than 50% in the US now?

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No way in the world that 70% of all of AT&T and Verizon smartphone sales are iPhones in 2013.  No way in the world.  Apple probably couldn't even muster 70% of all sales the month after a new product launch, let alone every month of the year.  iOS has steadily lost share over time.  They are not gaining it.

 

Robert

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http://www.iclarified.com/29749/ios-gains-us-marketshare-again-as-android-marketshare-declines-chart

 

 

Android has been over 50% marketshare for awhile. But let's not forget that Apple is the sole producer of products running iOS. If you look at the numbers overall, Apple does have the market share for smartphones OEMs in the USA. Android will always have a higher market share for the OS unless Apple starts licensing iOS to other OEMs. Also, we all need to be clear what market share we are describing. In the USA, iOS has actually been gaining market share recently, not losing it. This is mainly because of T-Mobile starting to sell the iPhone and iOS devices.  Worldwide, however, iOS is losing ground as budget OEMs are rapidly releasing Android devices to developing nations.

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No way in the world that 70% of all of AT&T and Verizon smartphone sales are iPhones in 2013. No way in the world. Apple probably couldn't even muster 70% of all sales the month after a new product launch, let alone every month of the year. iOS has steadily lost share over time. They are not gaining it.

 

Robert

That's not correct in the US market. The iPhone always takes a larger share when a new model is released, then sales slack off around this time as we await a new model. However Android has been stuck around 50% in the US market, give or take 3%, for some time. The iPhone has continued it's climb and hit 42% recently. http://bgr.com/2013/07/08/t-mobile-iphone-sales/

 

Over the Christmas quarter the iPhone accounted for more than half of all new phone sales: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57565106-37/iphone-wins-51-percent-of-u.s-smartphone-sales-says-report/

 

 

iOS is, in fact, gaining US marketshare. That's been the long-term trend since it was introduced and continues to be the case. You have to watch out because idiot analysts have changed their definitions of the mobile phone market over time, yielding misleading headlines. The Smartphone market is pretty much the phone market in the US now, and iOS continues to climb. Android just climbed to its current spot faster. The reality is both have done so by eating everyone else (including feature phones), but rarely at the expense of one another.

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That's not correct in the US market. The iPhone always takes a larger share when a new model is released, then sales slack off around this time as we await a new model. However Android has been stuck around 50% in the US market, give or take 3%, for some time. The iPhone has continued it's climb and hit 42% recently. http://bgr.com/2013/07/08/t-mobile-iphone-sales/

 

iOS is, in fact, gaining US marketshare. That's been the long-term trend since it was introduced and continues to be the case. You have to watch out because idiot analysts have changed their definitions of the mobile phone market over time, yielding misleading headlines. The Smartphone market is pretty much the phone market in the US now, and iOS continues to climb. Android just climbed to its current spot faster. The reality is both have done so by eating everyone else (including feature phones), but rarely at the expense of one another.

 I can accept your points.  I cannot accept the point of 70% share that was being offered by the poster.  Apple never hit 70% share in the U.S., or any major country.  Every percentage point over 50% is extremely difficult.  For any company.

 

Robert

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iOS is, in fact, gaining US marketshare. That's been the long-term trend since it was introduced and continues to be the case. You have to watch out because idiot analysts have changed their definitions of the mobile phone market over time, yielding misleading headlines. The Smartphone market is pretty much the phone market in the US now, and iOS continues to climb. Android just climbed to its current spot faster. The reality is both have done so by eating everyone else (including feature phones), but rarely at the expense of one another.

 

That does make sense with what I've seen then.  The mom and dad have the duo of Iphones.  An upgrade comes up for them and they upgrade to Android handsets, they hand them down to the two kiddos in high school to replace their regular messaging handsets.  Android gains a couple sales, Iphone stays the same in device count, the old school handsets drop a couple points, but this causes the percentages to creep up on both Android and Iphone.

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No way in the world that 70% of all of AT&T and Verizon smartphone sales are iPhones in 2013.  No way in the world.  Apple probably couldn't even muster 70% of all sales the month after a new product launch, let alone every month of the year.  iOS has steadily lost share over time.  They are not gaining it.

 

Robert

 

So sorry, but you are very, very wrong.

 

The most recent quarterly results are 1Q 2013. 

 

During that quarter:

 

AT&T sold 4.8 million iPhones and 6 million total smartphones. 80% of AT&T smartphones were iPhones.

VZW sold 4.1 million iPhones and 7.2 million total smartphones. Nearly 60% of Verizon smartphones were iPhones.

 

Combined, the two sold 8.9 million iPhones and 13.2 million smartphones. That's ~70% (68%) of all smartphone sales on AT&T and VZW as iPhones.

 

It's an even higher percent for 4Q 2012. (72%, to be exact)

 

The investor reports are timing out for me right now, but here are two alternative sources with the same info:

 

http://www.wirelessweek.com/news/2013/04/t-grows-margins-despite-record-1q-smarpthone-sales

http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/18/verizon-activated-4m-iphones-in-q1-2013-50-iphone-5-and-50-older-devices/

 

I've never had to eat crow. Please tell me how it tastes.  :P

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Moffett may be wrong (I generally expect him to be), but somebody else has picked up on this too.

 

http://news.investors.com/technology/071113-663305-apple-verizon-seen-renegotiating-iphone-purchase-commitment.htm?p=full

 

 

Verizon, Apple iPhone Contract Conundrum Flares
 

By REINHARDT KRAUSEINVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY

 Posted 10:13 AM ET
 
Wireless phone companies agree to buy a minimum number of iPhones upfront and then generally subsidize the retail cost of the phones for subscribers that sign long-term service contracts.
 
Verizon Wireless might owe Apple (AAPL) $12 billion or more under its contract to sell iPhones, analysts say, but they also say the two companies are likely to renegotiate minimum purchase commitments to avoid harming their relationship.


 

According to a Nomura research report, Verizon Wireless in a regulatory filing has disclosed that it has $24.7 billion in minimum purchase commitments that are apparently tied to its iPhone contract with Apple. Verizon Communications (VZ) and Vodafone (VOD) co-own Verizon Wireless. Nomura says Verizon's current contract with Apple appears to end in 2013.


Craig Moffett, analyst at MoffettNathanson, on Wednesday had released a report saying Verizon could owe Apple up to $14 billion because of lower-than-expected iPhone sales, according to a Bloomberg News report."Verizon Wireless looks as though it will have an outstanding liability to Apple of up to $12 billion, equivalent to 19 million iPhones at Apple's Q2, 2013 (average selling price) of $613," Nomura analyst Stuart Jeffrey wrote in a report released Thursday.

 

Jeffrey says Verizon is probably not the only wireless firm experiencing a shortfall in demand. He says Apple stands to lose out if iPhones flood the market amid sluggish demand and stiff competition from Samsung.

"We believe that this situation puts Apple in an interesting position," wrote Jeffrey. "Minimum purchase commitments have, we believe, become a core part of Apple's iPhone business model. If Apple does not impose terms on Verizon Wireless, then other operators may believe that they too will not be punished by missing their commitments. The result of this could be that operators reduce their marketing support for the iPhone, in the hope of steering demand to Android phones that incur lower subsidies."

 

"It is hard to imagine, however, that Apple would really force its second-biggest customer (Verizon) to buy 19 million phones that it does not want and that would saturate the market," Jeffrey added. "If other carriers face the same shortfalls — which seems possible given the lower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 5 — then it is hard to imagine Apple forcing all operators globally to meet their commitments in one go."

 

Jeffrey says Verizon could order 19 million phones in Q4, aiming to sell them in 2014, as one way around the problem. In that case, he says Verizon would likely not renew its iPhone contract with Apple.

Moffett, however, says Apple will take a tough stand with its partners.

 

"It is likely that Apple would be reluctant to simply ignore these commitments, since many other carriers around the world are probably in a similar situation, and a simple amnesty would set an unwanted precedent," Moffett said in the Bloomberg report. "It is therefore unrealistic to think that Apple won't extract some consideration for renegotiating these shortfalls."

 

AT&T (T) was the first U.S. phone company to sell the iPhone, followed by Verizon, Sprint (S) and T-Mobile US (TMUS).

 

Analysts say the minimum purchase commitments might be why a few wireless firms, notably China Mobile (CHL), have yet to reach agreements to sell the iPhone.

 

Verizon and Apple shares were both up a fraction in early trading in the stock market Thursday.


 

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Moffett may be wrong (I generally expect him to be), but somebody else has picked up on this too.

 

http://news.investors.com/technology/071113-663305-apple-verizon-seen-renegotiating-iphone-purchase-commitment.htm?p=full

 

Oh goodness. Stupidity is contagious.

 

Both "analysts" are pulling the "commitment" number of $24.7 billion from a 10-K filing last year that discusses Verizon Communication's purchase commitments--not just Cellco Partnership d/b/a Verizon Wireless. Unfortunately, reading comprehension must not be a strong suit of either of them. The actual language from that section is as follows:

 

 

We have several commitments primarily to purchase handsets and peripherals, equipment, software, programming and network services, and marketing activities, which will be used or sold in the ordinary course of business, from a variety of suppliers totaling $51.1 billion. Of this total amount, we expect to purchase $22.8 billion in 2012, $24.6 billion in 2013 through 2014, $3.1 billion in 2015 through 2016 and $0.6 billion thereafter. These amounts do not represent our entire anticipated purchases in the future, but represent only those items for which we are contractually committed. Our commitments are generally determined based on the noncancelable quantities or termination amounts. Purchases against our commitments for 2011 totaled approximately $13 billion. Since the commitments to purchase programming services from television networks and broadcast stations have no minimum volume requirement, we estimated our obligation based on number of subscribers at December 31, 2011, and applicable rates stipulated in the contracts in effect at that time. We also purchase products and services as needed with no firm commitment.

 

 

In fact, the most recent 10-K has changed the numbers to:

 

 

We have several commitments primarily to purchase handsets and peripherals, equipment, software, programming and network services, and marketing activities, which will be used or sold in the ordinary course of business, from a variety of suppliers totaling $41.8 billion. Of this total amount, $29.6 billion is attributable to 2013, $7.5 billion is attributable to 2014 through 2015, $4.2 billion is attributable to 2016 through 2017 and $0.5 billion is attributable to years thereafter. These amounts do not represent our entire anticipated purchases in the future, but represent only those items that are the subject of contractual obligations. Our commitments are generally determined based on the noncancelable quantities or termination amounts.

 

 

Regardless of the amounts--though the analysts are clearly using outdated numbers--they are classifying the entirety of all of Verizon Communication's purchase commitments as solely attributable to the Apple iPhone contract. 

 

Instead, this $29.6 (new number) for 2013 purchase commitments includes not only Apple, but Samsung, HTC, and Motorola for handsets BUT ALSO Verizon landline commitments and even marketing contracts. 

 

Sheesh. Why can't anyone get their facts right these days?!

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All this math doesn't add up... if indeed VZW and AT&T are both apparently selling Iphones like hotcakes well above and over the other handsets, how do they not have more than 50% of the market share in the US.   Something doesn't quite fit here.  Everyone putting their own little spin on things based on which type of device they like and which carrier they like.  Brand loyalty...meh...

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All this math doesn't add up... if indeed VZW and AT&T are both apparently selling Iphones like hotcakes well above and over the other handsets, how do they not have more than 50% of the market share in the US.   Something doesn't quite fit here.  Everyone putting their own little spin on things based on which type of device they like and which carrier they like.  Brand loyalty...meh...

 

The math adds up perfectly. There is no spin. The premium carriers, AT&T and Verizon, are moving iPhones like hotcakes. Their generally more affluent users eat them up, which is consistent with all demographic research indicating HHI users to prefer iPhones.

 

Sprint has been moving them more slowly. T-Mobile is as well. Metro/US Cellular/many regionals could not offer the iPhone to their subscribers during these periods, and thus only could sell Androids. This is why the entire US marketshare for iPhone is around 42%, despite the premium carriers overwhelmingly selling iPhones as the smartphone of choice.

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All this math doesn't add up... if indeed VZW and AT&T are both apparently selling Iphones like hotcakes well above and over the other handsets, how do they not have more than 50% of the market share in the US. Something doesn't quite fit here. Everyone putting their own little spin on things based on which type of device they like and which carrier they like. Brand loyalty...meh...

Agreeded

 

Sent from my SPH-L900 using Tapatalk 2

 

 

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So sorry, but you are very, very wrong.

 

The most recent quarterly results are 1Q 2013.

 

During that quarter:

 

AT&T sold 4.8 million iPhones and 6 million total smartphones. 80% of AT&T smartphones were iPhones.

VZW sold 4.1 million iPhones and 7.2 million total smartphones. Nearly 60% of Verizon smartphones were iPhones.

 

Combined, the two sold 8.9 million iPhones and 13.2 million smartphones. That's ~70% (68%) of all smartphone sales on AT&T and VZW as iPhones.

 

It's an even higher percent for 4Q 2012. (72%, to be exact)

 

The investor reports are timing out for me right now, but here are two alternative sources with the same info:

 

http://www.wirelessweek.com/news/2013/04/t-grows-margins-despite-record-1q-smarpthone-sales

http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/18/verizon-activated-4m-iphones-in-q1-2013-50-iphone-5-and-50-older-devices/

 

I've never had to eat crow. Please tell me how it tastes. :P

You come into my forums and ask me to eat crow? Even if you were right, you should at least respond in a respectful tone. You are a troll.

 

Let me dish some up crow for you. The Verizon article clearly states iPhone sales were just over 50% the last quarter, with the highest quarter reported around 66%.

 

The AT&T article can't even be compared, because they cite iPhone activations versus total sales. To come up with a percentage you need iPhone activations to total activations, or iPhone sales to total sales.

 

You are cherry picking quarters and data to make a false point and make it seem like these percentages represent all year.

 

I am not an iPhone hater by any means. But the facts do not support your outlandish 70% share claims. I have proven you to be mistaken. Any other disrespect or shots across my bow and you will be banned. You could have responded to my point without having to be a provocateur. You can provide further evidence to support your claims if you like, but do so in a respectable way that does not make you look like a douche.

 

Robert from Note 2 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

 

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The numbers pulled from the articles are only from the first quarter, correct?  Also, do activations( the number

mentioned in the article I believe was activations, not sales) for AT&T directly translate to sales, or could there be existing devices activated?  The example Digiblur gave would show as an activation, but not a sale.

 

Edit:  Never mind, it looks like Robert answered both questions.

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I can accept your points.  I cannot accept the point of 70% share that was being offered by the poster.  Apple never hit 70% share in the U.S., or any major country.  Every percentage point over 50% is extremely difficult.  For any company.

 

Robert

Oh yeah, I absolutely agree.

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All this math doesn't add up... if indeed VZW and AT&T are both apparently selling Iphones like hotcakes well above and over the other handsets, how do they not have more than 50% of the market share in the US. Something doesn't quite fit here. Everyone putting their own little spin on things based on which type of device they like and which carrier they like. Brand loyalty...meh...

Those numbers are just for one quarter; they'd have to be sustained for a year or two to start swinging the overall numbers.

 

Anyway the original article is nonsense but for those of us in the AAPL news game it isn't surprising in the least. Everyone gushes all over themselves to be the first to print some random Apple rumor. The recent spat about "zombie" apps is a good example... Some marketing company claims the majority of apps in the Apple store are "zombies" because they don't appear in the top lists, which Apple only details to the top 400 when the reality is far different. Most of the long tail of apps are regional or niche markets that are extremely valuable to their target audience but will never appear in any top sales or download list. That's the same kind of platform effect that has kept Windows on top of the desktop heap for decades. Did I mention that marketing company wants to sell you services to promote your app? No conflict of interest there! It is almost as amusing as the "people hate the iPhone" story from last week using a survey compiled by no less than one of Samsung's marketing partners! Yet the press runs with the stories because it suits the pre-existing narrative and generates emotional reactions (read: page views).

 

Flash: Microsoft marketing partner says Windows Phone and Slate are the future, iPads now "totally uncool"; news at 11!!!! Can I be a "journalist" now?

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You come into my forums and ask me to eat crow? Even if you were right, you should at least respond in a respectful tone. You are a troll. Let me dish some up crow for you. The Verizon article clearly states iPhone sales were just over 50% the last quarter, with the highest quarter reported around 66%. The AT&T article can't even be compared, because they cite iPhone activations versus total sales. To come up with a percentage you need iPhone activations to total activations, or iPhone sales to total sales. You are cherry picking quarters and data to make a false point and make it seem like these percentages represent all year. I am not an iPhone hater by any means. But the facts do not support your outlandish 70% share claims. I have proven you to be mistaken. Any other disrespect or shots across my bow and you will be banned. You could have responded to my point without having to be a provocateur. You can provide further evidence to support your claims if you like, but do so in a respectable way that does not make you look like a douche. Robert from Note 2 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

 

Wow. Obviously you were reading on a mobile device, because otherwise you would have clearly have seen the emoticon at the end that indicated it was a good-natured jest. The entirely factual post meant no disrespect. And, as far as I know, it's hard to troll with entirely factual posts. 

 

Next, I am still correct.

 

You say that the Verizon article mentioned they sold ~50%. That's exactly what my numbers confirmed. 4.1 million/7.8 million= 52%.  AT&T's was 80%, and combined they are nearly 70%. Exactly as I said the first time. And the second time. And now the third time.

 

As for the AT&T numbers, AT&T interchangeably says net activations or sales for their devices. Feel free to investigate their financials and conference calls, but the numbers are spot on. Here is the Verge reporting the same 4.8 million in sales: http://www.theverge.com/2013/4/23/4253874/att-new-1-2-million-smartphone-q1-2013-financials

 

As for cherry picking quarters---hardly. I just used the most recent two. They account for half of a year, and are also the only full ones that have the iPhone 5 in it. Additionally, my original statement was that the iPhone now makes up a combined 70% of sales at Verizon and AT&T. Such language implies currentness, and is bolstered by my use of the most recent data. If you look back over the past year, the figure only changes slightly to around 67%.

 

And I'm not an iPhone fan. I don't care about either device one way or the other. The fact is my share claims are not outlandish, and are 100% supported by actual data. I welcome you or anyone else to show where any of the facts are incorrect.

 

In summary, here are the plain facts:

 

  • The iPhone now makes up nearly 70% of all smartphone sales at AT&T and Verizon.
  • The iPhone made up 52% of sales at VZW and 80% of sales at AT&T for a combined total of nearly 70% last quarter
  • The quarter prior had combined sales at 72% of all smartphones.

ETA: Here is an article from now one YEAR ago detailing the iPhone's performance across carriers: http://www.mobileworldlive.com/iphone-outselling-android-at-top-three-us-carriers

 

AT&T: 4.3 million iPhones / 5.5 million total smartphones

Verizon: 3.2 million iPhones / 6.2 million total smartphones

 

(4.3+3.2)/(5.5 + 6.2) = ~65%. 

 

Even a year ago, the iPhone was 65% of the combined premium carrier's sales.

No way in the world that 70% of all of AT&T and Verizon smartphone sales are iPhones in 2013.  No way in the world.  Apple probably couldn't even muster 70% of all sales the month after a new product launch, let alone every month of the year.  iOS has steadily lost share over time.  They are not gaining it.

 

Robert

 

 

Also, you originally said they couldn't even muster 70% of all sales the month after a new product launch. I think providing two quarters [sIX (6) months] of sales data showing otherwise is more than sufficient to have fully refuted that.

 

And as far as iOS "steadily los[ing] share over time"... http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-apple-iphone-us-sales-gains-latest-quarter-20130708,0,7744078.story

 

Apple is up 3.5 percentage points year over year.

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Wow. Obviously you were reading on a mobile device, because otherwise you would have clearly have seen the emoticon at the end that indicated it was a good-natured jest. The entirely factual post meant no disrespect. And, as far as I know, it's hard to troll with entirely factual posts.

 

Next, I am still correct.

 

You say that the Verizon article mentioned they sold ~50%. That's exactly what my numbers confirmed. 4.1 million/7.8 million= 52%. AT&T's was 80%, and combined they are nearly 70%. Exactly as I said the first time. And the second time. And now the third time.

 

As for the AT&T numbers, AT&T interchangeably says net activations or sales for their devices. Feel free to investigate their financials and conference calls, but the numbers are spot on. Here is the Verge reporting the same 4.8 million in sales: http://www.theverge.com/2013/4/23/4253874/att-new-1-2-million-smartphone-q1-2013-financials

 

As for cherry picking quarters---hardly. I just used the most recent two. They account for half of a year, and are also the only full ones that have the iPhone 5 in it. Additionally, my original statement was that the iPhone now makes up a combined 70% of sales at Verizon and AT&T. Such language implies currentness, and is bolstered by my use of the most recent data. If you look back over the past year, the figure only changes slightly to around 67%.

 

And I'm not an iPhone fan. I don't care about either device one way or the other. The fact is my share claims are not outlandish, and are 100% supported by actual data. I welcome you or anyone else to show where any of the facts are incorrect.

 

In summary, here are the plain facts:

  • The iPhone now makes up nearly 70% of all smartphone sales at AT&T and Verizon.
  • The iPhone made up 52% of sales at VZW and 80% of sales at AT&T for a combined total of nearly 70% last quarter
  • The quarter prior had combined sales at 72% of all smartphones.

You're just rehashing your old statistics. It does not prove that Apple has a 70% share in the U.S., either the past quarter, the past year or ever. AT&T still has not said that they are selling 80% iPhones even in the source you linked. It's not accurate. You are comparing their total iPhone activations against total sales. That's an apples to orange comparison.

 

You then extrapolate what is going on inaccurately at the two largest carriers across the whole country. That is also faulty logic. iPhone penetration is not above 50% nationally and likely never will. And selling 55% Verizon share for the most recent quarter sure is heck not going to get them to a 70% national share. Your deductions are stratospherically off course.

 

Robert from Note 2 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

 

 

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