T-Mobile LTE & Network Discussion

[Nickel]

 

AJ

[BenChase7]

Looks like a Lebron James theatrical. 

[Fraydog]

Look up some YouTube video of John Legere at Global Crossing. He looked precisely like the suit he accuses others of being!

[Mr.Nuke]

Iliad has bowed out of the T-Mobile bidding. I doubt Charlie is willing to pay what DT thinks their stake is worth either with no one left to bid against.

 

Iliad's statement can be found here.

http://www.iliad.fr/en/presse/2014/CP_131014_Eng.pdf

[kg4icg]

Right now, T-Mobile is at $26.92 a share and falling. Was at $34 a share back in July.

[Conan Kudo]

Right now, T-Mobile is at $26.92 a share and falling. Was at $34 a share back in July.

The market would be volatile for a while, so the valuation of the share would be considered untrustworthy for the next few days. It's an opportunity to snap up shares at a discount, though.

[Mr.Nuke]

The market would be volatile for a while, so the valuation of the share would be considered untrustworthy for the next few days. It's an opportunity to snap up shares at a discount, though.

That is one way to look at it. The other way would be to consider that for basically the entire year the stock had been trading at a premium due to potential merger/buyout talk. That premium is gone today with the stock reverting to last December like value.

[Conan Kudo]

That is one way to look at it. The other way would be to consider that for basically the entire year the stock had been trading at a premium due to potential merger/buyout talk. That premium is gone today with the stock reverting to last December like value.

I don't think so. Based on the analyst reports that have been coming out over the last few days that remove the M&A "premium", I expect that it'll quickly rise back up to the low 30s. A few of them have indicated that they expect the share price to rise to $35-37 very soon.

[JeffDTD]

3rd quarter results will be the next thing to rally the stock.  

[joshuam]

3rd quarter results will be the next thing to rally the stock.  

 

Agreed. With the way Legere was talking at their last "Uncarrier Event", I'm pretty sure they are having another impressive quarter. I am anxious to see the results of the big 4 carriers, and hoping that Sprint will continue on the upward trend as well. I don't see T-Mobile stock climbing to $37 after this quarter though.

[bigsnake49]

I don't think so. Based on the analyst reports that have been coming out over the last few days that remove the M&A "premium", I expect that it'll quickly rise back up to the low 30s. A few of them have indicated that they expect the share price to rise to $35-37 very soon.

 

I expect it to hover around $25. It will also depend on how much they will end up spending on the auction. T-Mobile had pretty low debt but they will end up with quite a bit of it after this auction. Nowhere near Sprint's of course...

[mozamcrew]

I expect it to hover around $25. It will also depend on how much they will end up spending on the auction. T-Mobile had pretty low debt but they will end up with quite a bit of it after this auction. Nowhere near Sprint's of course...

Plus they have been spending a lot of money to get 700Mhz spectrum as well.

[Conan Kudo]

Plus they have been spending a lot of money to get 700Mhz spectrum as well.

The spending for 700MHz has minimal impact on T-Mobile, since it comes from free cash flow (which T-Mobile has over $3 billion as of Q2). My guess is that they spent roughly $100 million in August and September on 700MHz purchases, based on the declaration of $50 million for August and the roughly equivalent amount of purchases in September. So I don't think that's a problem.

 

The AWS-3 auction is going to be where T-Mobile is going to be very focused on bidding. This auction is not really critical for the company in most parts of the country, but there are a few key markets where picking AWS-3 could help with either swaps for AWS-1 or using it for extra capacity (small cells, etc.). Verizon will also be strategically bidding for areas that it can use to reach 20MHz FDD wherever it needs it.

 

AT&T, on the other hand, has totally frozen network investment for the second half of the year so that it can spend big on AWS-3 without impacting its all-important dividend guidance. 

[orangeblue]

The spending for 700MHz has minimal impact on T-Mobile, since it comes from free cash flow (which T-Mobile has over $3 billion as of Q2). My guess is that they spent roughly $100 million in August and September on 700MHz purchases, based on the declaration of $50 million for August and the roughly equivalent amount of purchases in September. So I don't think that's a problem.

 

The AWS-3 auction is going to be where T-Mobile is going to be very focused on bidding. This auction is not really critical for the company in most parts of the country, but there are a few key markets where picking AWS-3 could help with either swaps for AWS-1 or using it for extra capacity (small cells, etc.). Verizon will also be strategically bidding for areas that it can use to reach 20MHz FDD wherever it needs it.

 

AT&T, on the other hand, has totally frozen network investment for the second half of the year so that it can spend big on AWS-3 without impacting its all-important dividend guidance. 

 

T-Mobile USA's problem will show next year because Deutsche Telekom is not willing to fund additional expansion in the U.S. because the credit rating of TMo US is lower as DT's.

Sprint has been smart to wait and it will clearly use Softbanks full pockets to clean up the 600 Mhz band auction. Since NV provides the platform, we could see a nationwide rollout even faster as the LTE deployment by TMo.

[Conan Kudo]

T-Mobile USA's problem will show next year because Deutsche Telekom is not willing to fund additional expansion in the U.S. because the credit rating of TMo US is lower as DT's.

Sprint has been smart to wait and it will clearly use Softbanks full pockets to clean up the 600 Mhz band auction. Since NV provides the platform, we could see a nationwide rollout even faster as the LTE deployment by TMo.

Credit ratings aren't static. They can change quarterly, and you have no idea what DT's investment plan is. Pretty much everyone will find out at the biannual Capital Markets Day event this December.

[orangeblue]

Credit ratings aren't static. They can change quarterly, and you have no idea what DT's investment plan is. Pretty much everyone will find out at the biannual Capital Markets Day event this December.

 

True, but DT has stated that is doen't want to fund any additional business in the U.S.

DT has a lot of problems in their "domestic" European market, especially in southern and eastern Europe

[bigsnake49]

I don't see T-Mobile going big on AWS-3. Maybe 5+5MHz nationwide. I do see both Verizon&AT&T winning the rest (10+10 each). Of course all three can refarm PCS frequencies for additional bandwidth. Verizon and AT&T also can ref arm their PCS holdings. Nobody will be hurting for spectrum. Does anybody have an idea of when Sprint will go back and add second or third channels to their PCS G block ( I know they have in the Chicago area)? Is it not a high priority?

[Conan Kudo]

True, but DT has stated that is doen't want to fund any additional business in the U.S.

DT has a lot of problems in their "domestic" European market, especially in southern and eastern Europe

Well, Southern Europe is doing fine, since they don't actually have anything in Italy, and ΟΤΕ is doing fine in Greece. The only "problem" unit in Eastern Europe is Poland. They've got their work cut out for them there. The rest of the European units are stable, but network modernization efforts are underway to simplify the cost structure and add flexibility to the network architecture. European units with fixed networks are also receiving upgrades, particularly convergence upgrades to enable fixed-mobile convergence offers.

 

DT hasn't stated that it doesn't want to fund any business in the U.S., but it has said that it is pleased that T-Mobile US is self-funding in its own right, and the company does not need to depend on DT to raise cash for auctions or other business initiatives.

 

I don't see T-Mobile going big on AWS-3. Maybe 5+5MHz nationwide. I do see both Verizon&AT&T winning the rest (10+10 each). Of course all three can refarm PCS frequencies for additional bandwidth. Verizon and AT&T also can ref arm their PCS holdings. Nobody will be hurting for spectrum. Does anybody have an idea of when Sprint will go back and add second or third channels to their PCS G block ( I know they have in the Chicago area)? Is it not a high priority?

 

You can't add more channels to PCS G block. It's already full with the single 5MHz FDD carrier. Adding more PCS channels would be in Sprint's allocations on A-F blocks.

[bigsnake49]

Well, Southern Europe is doing fine, since they don't actually have anything in Italy, and ΟΤΕ is doing fine in Greece. The only "problem" unit in Eastern Europe is Poland. They've got their work cut out for them there. The rest of the European units are stable, but network modernization efforts are underway to simplify the cost structure and add flexibility to the network architecture. European units with fixed networks are also receiving upgrades, particularly convergence upgrades to enable fixed-mobile convergence offers.

 

DT hasn't stated that it doesn't want to fund any business in the U.S., but it has said that it is pleased that T-Mobile US is self-funding in its own right, and the company does not need to depend on DT to raise cash for auctions or other business initiatives.

 

You can't add more channels to PCS G block. It's already full with the single 5MHz FDD carrier. Adding more PCS channels would be in Sprint's allocations on A-F blocks.

 

That's what I meant, sorry if I was not clear. I meant add more channels to their Band 26 deployment.

[Boosted20V]

Well, Southern Europe is doing fine, since they don't actually have anything in Italy, and ΟΤΕ is doing fine in Greece. The only "problem" unit in Eastern Europe is Poland. They've got their work cut out for them there. The rest of the European units are stable, but network modernization efforts are underway to simplify the cost structure and add flexibility to the network architecture. European units with fixed networks are also receiving upgrades, particularly convergence upgrades to enable fixed-mobile convergence offers.

 

DT hasn't stated that it doesn't want to fund any business in the U.S., but it has said that it is pleased that T-Mobile US is self-funding in its own right, and the company does not need to depend on DT to raise cash for auctions or other business initiatives.

 

You can't add more channels to PCS G block. It's already full with the single 5MHz FDD carrier. Adding more PCS channels would be in Sprint's allocations on A-F blocks.

 

 

According to this article:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-telekom-avoid-answering-cash-164123969.html

 

DT is not willing to take on debt on behalf of TMUS. Looks like TMUS will have to raise the capital themselves.

[S4GRU]

That's what I meant, sorry if I was not clear. I meant add more channels to their Band 26 deployment.

Apparently a second PCS carrier deployment is under way in Cleveland now. So that means to date, Chicago, Shentel and Cleveland are receiving second carriers.

[EvanA]

Apparently a second PCS carrier deployment is under way in Cleveland now. So that means to date, Chicago, Shentel and Cleveland are receiving second carriers.

St. Louis is scheduled to receive a second carrier soon as well

[ffdjd]

What is involved with adding a second carrier? Is it adding an additional card and associated software or is it more complex?

[Dkoellerwx]

Apparently a second PCS carrier deployment is under way in Cleveland now. So that means to date, Chicago, Shentel and Cleveland are receiving second carriers.

St. Louis is scheduled to receive a second carrier soon as well

*Missouri. Supposedly is supposed to start rolling out this fall. We have found a second carrier on a few of the Illinois sites. However they are the small portion of the market managed by Samsung, so I don't know if that counts.

 

Sent from my Nexus 5

[EvanA]

What is involved with adding a second carrier? Is it adding an additional card and associated software or is it more complex?

Carrier card, much like band 26.