by Robert Herron
Sprint 4G Rollout Updates
Thursday, June 28, 2012 - 12:59 PM MDT
The next market in our Network Vision/LTE deployment schedule update series is The Music City...Nashville. The Nashville market has yet to be announced by Sprint, but is expected to be announced in the near future. Perhaps around the time of the first market launches on July 15th?
The Sprint Nashville market encompasses all of the Sprint native coverage in eastern Tennessee, and the Tri-Cities area of Western Virginia. This includes the Nashville, Chattanooga, Knoxville, Clarksville and the Tri-Cities (Johnson City/Kingsport/Bristol). Sprint's Network Vision OEM Ericsson is scheduled to begin mobilizing in this area with its subcontractors in late July. Completed Network Vision sites should start coming online before the end of August.
Nashville Market Launch
It was Sprint's original plan to launch markets when they reached 50% of sites converted to Network Vision. However, it has now been determined that Sprint will move up launches sooner than 50% completion in several markets. This is likely to maintain a Mid 2012 launch in markets that have already been announced. However, in an unannounced market like Nashville, we don't know if they will resume pushing back market launches to 50%, or if they will now settle on a 40% completion to be the new normal for market launches.
If Sprint waits for 50% completion to launch the Nashville market, it would make the launch month to be December (should the OEM stay on schedule). If they plan on a 40% market completion for launch, that would be November. You may think that 40% - 50% site completion is not enough to launch LTE service, but it would provide pretty good coverage. Even Verizon doesn't launch on all sites in a market initially. Usually less than 50%, then filling in with more and more sites every few months.
Anticipated Sites Complete at Market Launch. According to the Network Vision schedules that S4GRU has reviewed, if Sprint launched the market in November, these are the anticipated sites that would likely have LTE complete at that time. This would provide fairly good LTE coverage over many parts of the market. Some sites are scheduled to be live in the Tri-Cities at the time. However, Chattanooga and Knoxville sites won't start until early 2013.
Schedule details and the bottom line
We currently do not have a date that Sprint will formally "launch" the Nashville market. It is difficult to try to pick a date now this far out. And we know Sprint won't want to do that. But we will take a stab at it. In looking at the schedule as of today, it would indicate a November market launch (going on a 40% - 50% completion for launch). But there is no way to know if Ericsson and their subcontractors will actually hit their schedule dates this early in the deployment for this market. We will be able to gauge better after a few months of production.
Ericsson will need to hit a production rate of 85 sites per month to stay on schedule. This will be a difficult rate to achieve and maintain consistently. Guessing now and based on the best production rates thus far, I could see this market taking longer to complete. Since they should be starting soon, we will be able to understand how things are going in a few months.
S4GRU has examined the schedule in great detail in this market and sees that most of the sites are scheduled to be complete by March 2013. However, there may be a few sporadic sites that will linger past the completion.
Photo of Knoxville skyline provided courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.