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AT&T and T-Mobile Merger approval odds have slid below 50% according to analysts


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by Robert Herron
Sprint 4G Rollout Updates
Monday, November 21, 2011 - 6:21 PM MST

 

News is getting more and more bleak for the approval of the AT&T/T-Mobile merger. This weekend, and in to today, there have been several articles painting a more dire outlook on the merger getting the necessary government approvals.

The Financial Times is reporting that most analysts now think that the $39 billion merger has less than a 50/50 chance of being approved. Some being so dire as giving chance of approval at 20%. It appears that it seems that most people gave AT&T the best shot at the time of the announcement. But as time has gone by, opinion has slipped lower and lower. And AT&T's case has largely been to attack Sprint directly and through surrogates. Largely ignoring the grounds of the antitrust case as presented by the DOJ that was filed to stop the merger.

Just walking away is not likely though, at this point. Given that AT&T has $6 billion in cash and other incentives it is on the hook to pay to T-Mobile should the deal fall through.

And the longer this drags out and the deal should be rejected, what will that leave of T-Mobile? The delay and dragging out of this deal is very bad for their subscriber counts. Leaving magenta girl and all her friends left to do the limbo. But now the rumors are starting suggesting T-Mobile could join forces with Dish Network, or even a buy out from Dish, in a post apocalypse merger failure.

What are your thoughts on the merger?

 

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