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Wireless Financial Reporting Season


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#1 marioc21

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 06:15 AM

Verizon is first out of the gate with Q1 results.

Highlights:
  • Added 734,000 new customers. 501,000 net postpaid adds.
  • 3.2 million iphones sold during quarter. 2.1 million LTE smartphones sold. 2.9 Million total LTE devices.
  • 8 million total LTE subscribers
  • 93 million total customers.

sources:
http://newscenter.ve...uble-digit.html
http://www.mobilebur...ones-in-q1-2012

AT&T Will be next up on 4/24 followed by Sprint on 4/25 and Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile) on 5/10.

Any thoughts where sprint will wind up?

#2 themuffinman

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 06:41 AM

I don't even know how sprint will perform being that nextel customers are dropping like flies. As far as total subscribers though I hope they have a net increase in postpaid customers. Personally I am more curious to see their quarterly financials more than anything else.
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#3 MacinJosh

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 07:51 AM

I hope they post subscriber growth like they did last quarter. Plus I hope they start gaining profit too. Otherwise I'll be upside down on my Sprint stock too. (gulp)

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#4 marioc21

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 08:03 AM

I hope they post subscriber growth like they did last quarter. Plus I hope they start gaining profit too. Otherwise I'll be upside down on my Sprint stock too. (gulp)

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Reporting a profit is too much to hope for. Until they completely shut down nextel and complete the majority of their NV deployment I doubt they'll report a profit. I think continued subscriber growth and ARPU growth would be good signs. Along with lower subscriber churn.

Very interested to listen to earnings call and hear what they might have to say about LTE roaming with RCA partners.

#5 MacinJosh

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 08:37 AM

Very interested to listen to earnings call and hear what they might have to say about LTE roaming with RCA partners.


I'm very interested in that too. However, I think they will wait until the shareholders meeting to discuss that.

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#6 marioc21

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 08:41 AM

I'm very interested in that too. However, I think they will wait until the shareholders meeting to discuss that.


There was an article from last week that had Bob Azzi or some some other VP saying they would discuss this more during the earnings call. Who knows, they probably won't say anything really substantive.

#7 themuffinman

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 08:59 AM

Reporting a profit is too much to hope for. Until they completely shut down nextel and complete the majority of their NV deployment I doubt they'll report a profit. I think continued subscriber growth and ARPU growth would be good signs. Along with lower subscriber churn.

Very interested to listen to earnings call and hear what they might have to say about LTE roaming with RCA partners.


You really have to look at more than just the bottom line, Sprint for example has a huge amount for depreciation expense. Depreciation is a non cash expense so if you back that out of the equation then they wouldn't be in the red at all, that's what makes the cash flow statement so important. I haven't taken the time to look into detail of their financial statements but if you look at their cash flow statements, even though they show a loss every quarter, they still show positive cash flows over the same period and a lot of it has to do with adding back in the non cash depreciation expense. Now that was my little positive spin on them but in reality though they are getting their asses kicked, and they are paying for it by getting into long term debt. I really hope this network vision buildout really brings customers in by the boat load, so they can start to reduce the amount of debt they have gotten themselves involved with trying to stay afloat.
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#8 4ringsnbr

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 09:45 AM

  • 93 million total customers.


I wish the authors of the article had been more precise. They have 93 million RETAIL customers. Their total wireless customer count was 108 million at the end of the year. They should have between 109 - 110 million TOTAL customers now (including wholesale).

#9 marioc21

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 10:19 AM

I wish the authors of the article had been more precise. They have 93 million RETAIL customers. Their total wireless customer count was 108 million at the end of the year. They should have between 109 - 110 million TOTAL customers now (including wholesale).


Funny because the 93 million came from Verizon's own earnings press release. Verizon didn't mention wholesale customers in its news releases or the financials they put out. Will have to wait and see their 10-Q and see if there's more info.

#10 marioc21

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 10:25 AM

You really have to look at more than just the bottom line, Sprint for example has a huge amount for depreciation expense. Depreciation is a non cash expense so if you back that out of the equation then they wouldn't be in the red at all, that's what makes the cash flow statement so important. I haven't taken the time to look into detail of their financial statements but if you look at their cash flow statements, even though they show a loss every quarter, they still show positive cash flows over the same period and a lot of it has to do with adding back in the non cash depreciation expense. Now that was my little positive spin on them but in reality though they are getting their asses kicked, and they are paying for it by getting into long term debt. I really hope this network vision buildout really brings customers in by the boat load, so they can start to reduce the amount of debt they have gotten themselves involved with trying to stay afloat.


Exactly. They've been writing off the Nextel merger for basically the last five years. They've also had to write down their investment in clearwire a couple of times. That's basically why they've reported losses for so many quarters in a row. Operationally, they seem to be doing ok. Revenues are increasing. ARPU has increased the last few quarters. Customer growth has overall been positive even though it's mainly been due to prepaid a lot of times. As far as debt goes, they seem to be managing it. We'll get a clearer picture next week but they've managed to basically refinance what's been coming due and replacing with debt due 5 to 10 years out.

#11 4ringsnbr

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 10:26 AM

Funny because the 93 million came from Verizon's own earnings press release. Verizon didn't mention wholesale customers in its news releases or the financials they put out. Will have to wait and see their 10-Q and see if there's more info.

http://www.engadget....-broadband-sub/

If you see the 4Q11 press release linked above, they had 92.2 million RETAIL connections and 108.7 million TOTAL wireless connections at the end of 2011. The 93 million number is RETAIL customers.

#12 marioc21

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 10:44 AM

http://www.engadget....-broadband-sub/

If you see the 4Q11 press release linked above, they had 92.2 million RETAIL connections and 108.7 million TOTAL wireless connections at the end of 2011. The 93 million number is RETAIL customers.


Not disputing you. Just said Verizon didn't bother to report their total subscriber numbers this quarter.

#13 MacinJosh

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 12:22 PM

I am surprised that they didn't report wholesale customers. Maybe that's just something they do at the end of each year.

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#14 marioc21

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 12:57 PM

I am surprised that they didn't report wholesale customers. Maybe that's just something they do at the end of each year.

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Whoever they tasked with preparing their news release probably didn't think it was that important. And the financial people apparently agreed. It's probably included in the 10-Q filing with the SEC, but that doesn't seem to be available on EDGAR yet. It'll probably be a couple days.

#15 S4GRU

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 04:31 PM

I think while Verizon is trying to get their spectrum deal approved, they will be intentionally understating their subscriber numbers, or making them sound less than they are. Keep pushing just the retail numbers publicly.

It may be a strategy, since their other performance indicators are so high, why talk up the subscribers numbers too? If the FCC is constantly hearing numbers less than 100M, makes Verizon seem less formidable than over 100M. That 100M threshold is huge. Even if just psychological. That's just my opinion. :imo:

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#16 MacinJosh

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Posted 19 April 2012 - 05:03 PM

I think while Verizon is trying to get their spectrum deal approved, they will be intentionally understating their subscriber numbers, or making them sound less than they are. Keep pushing just the retail numbers publicly.

It may be a strategy, since their other performance indicators are so high, why talk up the subscribers numbers too? If the FCC is constantly hearing numbers less than 100M, makes Verizon seem less formidable than over 100M. That 100M threshold is huge. Even if just psychological. That's just my opinion. :imo:

Robert


That could very well be the reason the T-Mobile merger didn't go thru. Plus the fact that with T-Mo outta the way, at&t would be the only national GSM carrier in the country.

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#17 irev210

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 04:40 AM

That could very well be the reason the T-Mobile merger didn't go thru. Plus the fact that with T-Mo outta the way, at&t would be the only national GSM carrier in the country.

I think while Verizon is trying to get their spectrum deal approved, they will be intentionally understating their subscriber numbers, or making them sound less than they are. Keep pushing just the retail numbers publicly.

It may be a strategy, since their other performance indicators are so high, why talk up the subscribers numbers too? If the FCC is constantly hearing numbers less than 100M, makes Verizon seem less formidable than over 100M. That 100M threshold is huge. Even if just psychological. That's just my opinion. :imo:

Robert


FCC knows exactly how many subs VZN has.

I think the bigger question isn't if VZN will get the spectrum purchase approved - it is the cable companies + VZN partnership that faces bigger hurdles.

#18 S4GRU

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 06:12 AM

FCC knows exactly how many subs VZN has.

I think the bigger question isn't if VZN will get the spectrum purchase approved - it is the cable companies + VZN partnership that faces bigger hurdles.


I am a high level bureaucrat on a state level. Do not give your government so much credit.

I see every day assumptions, misused numbers, miscalculations, misunderstandings, errors, ineptitude, and the list goes on and on. Just because the FCC somewhere officially in a database or in an application has the right number, doesn't mean the committee overseeing the application will use those numbers in making their decision.

Do you know how many legislative and/or committee meetings where I have heard public officials quote statistics they have heard from the media instead of the official ones they should be using? Countless. My idea I put forth is more than plausible and is based on my personal experiences. But I recognize its only a theory. There is no definitive way to know what VZW is up to unless they tell us.

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#19 4ringsnbr

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 07:02 AM

FCC knows exactly how many subs VZN has.

I think the bigger question isn't if VZN will get the spectrum purchase approved - it is the cable companies + VZN partnership that faces bigger hurdles.


I agree... Verizon (landline) with FiOS is a direct competitor to some of the cablecos that Verizon Wireless is trying to pair up with.... the partnership will be tenuous at best. I think VZW really wants to BUY the spectrum-- the long term partnership is probably not high on their priority list.

#20 irev210

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Posted 20 April 2012 - 07:08 AM

I agree... Verizon (landline) with FiOS is a direct competitor to some of the cablecos that Verizon Wireless is trying to pair up with.... the partnership will be tenuous at best. I think VZW really wants to BUY the spectrum-- the long term partnership is probably not high on their priority list.


The partnership isn't high on Verizon's priority list but it is on the Cable Cos priority list.

Verizon wants nationwide AWS. Cable cos want a real wireless partner.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.




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