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centermedic

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JimBob Member Level: eHRPD

JimBob

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I will see this going higher, will drop a few percentages short term, but there's no catalyst for going lower, at least not yet. 

 

They will get another pop when Sprint announces the roll out 3xCA. 

The downside risk is the question of whether Sprint's new gains can be accelerated, let alone be sustained.  They are highly dependent on financial engineering to maintain their massive debt load and deep discounting to add/keep postpaid customers (while prepaid are fleeing/converting).

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Hmight Member Level: 3G EVDO

Hmight

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The downside risk is the question of whether Sprint's new gains can be accelerated, let alone be sustained.  They are highly dependent on financial engineering to maintain their massive debt load and deep discounting to add/keep postpaid customers (while prepaid are fleeing/converting).

Agree, subscriber gains or losses will correlate highly with how their network performs, as it always is for the telecom industry.  We should see more cap ex spending this quarter. They only spent .5 B in the last quarter. 

 

As for the debt load, I think once they get past December, which is when 3 Billion is due i think, it will help out with the interest expense.  They should look into refinance those upcoming maturities since their bond rates have come down to earth.  This would also help with interest expense.  

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centermedic Member Level: 4G WiMax

centermedic

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Agree, subscriber gains or losses will correlate highly with how their network performs, as it always is for the telecom industry.  We should see more cap ex spending this quarter. They only spent .5 B in the last quarter. 

 

As for the debt load, I think once they get past December, which is when 3 Billion is due i think, it will help out with the interest expense.  They should look into refinance those upcoming maturities since their bond rates have come down to earth.  This would also help with interest expense.  

Valid points. However, Sprint will continue to look better when compared to the other three national providors. Much is made about Sprints debt load. However, Verizons debt load is through the roof, especially after their buyout of Yahoo. AT&T has a managable debt load. Not sure about T-Mo but I suspect that they are in the best finacial position to continue the price wars. Verizon must keep their profit margin where it is in order to keep the investors happy. 

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irev210 Member Level: 4G WiMax

irev210

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Expected - lots of shorts to cover yesterday, which pushed it higher than otherwise "natural."

 

 

I think a lot of it is being driven by T-Mobile's earnings call.

 

T-Mobile said that July's subscriber gains are already ahead of sprint's 2Q new users.

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JustinRP37 Member Level: 3G EVDO

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I think a lot of it is being driven by T-Mobile's earnings call.

 

T-Mobile said that July's subscriber gains are already ahead of sprint's 2Q new users.

 

This!! It is people taking their gains, but this is a big part of it. T-Mobile posted pretty remarkable numbers today.

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irev210 Member Level: 4G WiMax

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This!! It is people taking their gains, but this is a big part of it. T-Mobile posted pretty remarkable numbers today.

 

 

There are share givers and there are share takers and T-Mobile has been a share taker now for 13 quarters in a row, for 3 years running including Q2. We delivered positive overall postpaid porting ratios versus the entire industry. Also, we now had 10 quarters in a row where T-Mobile has been positive against every major carrier contrary to what you may have heard on Monday. I will acknowledge that Sprint made some progress after going all in with a heavy discount strategy, but we are seeing positive postpaid porting ratios now for 13 quarters in a row versus Sprint including Q2, and we're off to an even stronger start versus them and everyone else in Q3, and I'll be glad to talk more about that in detail. So, really, I'm actually very happy to sit back and take share like we did this quarter from here to the end of times if everybody else is. And our net additions show the
math and they show it all.
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Hmight Member Level: 3G EVDO

Hmight

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I think a lot of it is being driven by T-Mobile's earnings call.

 

T-Mobile said that July's subscriber gains are already ahead of sprint's 2Q new users.

 

It's no more than just bragging. they gained 600+ the last 3 months, so that's 200k+ per month.  I think it's just common sense.  You should compare tmo numbers this year vs. last year. It's actually less.  Food for thoughts.

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irev210 Member Level: 4G WiMax

irev210

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It's no more than just bragging. they gained 600+ the last 3 months, so that's 200k+ per month.  I think it's just common sense.  You should compare tmo numbers this year vs. last year. It's actually less.  Food for thoughts.

 

 

Please expand - compare what numbers?  What's less?

 

Market Cap?  35.6 billion vs 31.6 billion

revenue?  9.2 billion vs 8.2 billion

gross margin? 56.1% vs 50.4%

EBITA margin? 26% vs 20.6%

Free Cash Flow? 419 million vs -30 million

 

are you just talking about net income and earnings per share that are down?

net income margin of 2.7% vs 4.3%

and

EPS of .30 vs .43

 

 

There are lots of numbers... not one number means the most.  If you look at the pretax income, it's up to 431 million over 374 million from  2Q15

 

The biggest difference is the increase in income tax expenses which unless you spent a lot of time modeling out what their tax rates were going to be, sort of a moot point.

 

The easy conclusion is that T-Mobile is absolutely crushing it.

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JimBob Member Level: eHRPD

JimBob

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I have been watching United States Cellular Corp (USM) as a possible stock purchase.  They report their quarterly results this Friday morning.   Are they a good target?  Their stock price has unfortunately already gone up over 10% since two months ago, so I might have missed the bottom.

 

https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AUSM

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Hmight Member Level: 3G EVDO

Hmight

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Please expand - compare what numbers?  What's less?

 

Market Cap?  35.6 billion vs 31.6 billion

revenue?  9.2 billion vs 8.2 billion

gross margin? 56.1% vs 50.4%

EBITA margin? 26% vs 20.6%

Free Cash Flow? 419 million vs -30 million

 

are you just talking about net income and earnings per share that are down?

net income margin of 2.7% vs 4.3%

and

EPS of .30 vs .43

 

 

There are lots of numbers... not one number means the most.  If you look at the pretax income, it's up to 431 million over 374 million from  2Q15

 

The biggest difference is the increase in income tax expenses which unless you spent a lot of time modeling out what their tax rates were going to be, sort of a moot point.

 

The easy conclusion is that T-Mobile is absolutely crushing it.

Postpaid

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DanielB Member Level: 3G EVDO

DanielB

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I think a lot of it is being driven by T-Mobile's earnings call.

 

T-Mobile said that July's subscriber gains are already ahead of sprint's 2Q new users.

 

Perhaps. But looking at volume, it is indisputable that much of the upward price action for S yesterday was due to shorts covering their positions. The decline today is a bit of that activity letting off steam plus, as you say, some selloff because of TMUS results.

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chamb Member Level: 4G WiMax

chamb

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Cramer made  a short comment about Sprint yesterday. His thoughts may be good or bad, I have seen him be right but he can also be wrong too.

His comment:

 

"The company has come around and I'm a believer."

 

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JimBob Member Level: eHRPD

JimBob

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Shenandoah Telecommunications and US Cellular both reported quarterly results today.  SHEN down 9% and USM up 4%.

 

http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/08/05/862036/0/en/Shenandoah-Telecommunications-Company-Reports-Second-Quarter-2016-Revenue-of-130-3-Million.html

 

http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/16/08/8312151/investors-happy-with-u-s-cellular-q2-beat

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JimBob Member Level: eHRPD

JimBob

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Sprint back down below $6.  US Cellular (USM) positive quarterly earnings were not enough to keep its stock positive.  I continue to monitor USM as a possible purchase.  I like their consistent revenue, profit, stable debt, and acquisition potential.

 

Shentel has been battered the past two weeks, but I believe it still has much more to fall.

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Hmight Member Level: 3G EVDO

Hmight

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Sprint back down below $6.  US Cellular (USM) positive quarterly earnings were not enough to keep its stock positive.  I continue to monitor USM as a possible purchase.  I like their consistent revenue, profit, stable debt, and acquisition potential.

 

Shentel has been battered the past two weeks, but I believe it still has much more to fall.

I would not be surprised if tmo or sprint will purchase USM.  the industry needs scale and usm is next in line to be swallowed. 

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