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"Prediction for 2015 : We'll go toe-to-toe with Verizon almost everywhere...and win"

http://newsroom.t-mobile.com/issues-insights-blog/2015-predictions.htm

 

T-Mobile's done an excellent job this year. They've been aggressive as hell. They've surpassed all their previous deadlines. They've rolled out new technology. It's fantastic, and it's impressive.

 

But if this is true native coverage, I can't see this happening. It's simply not realistic. At least, not unless they grossly redefine the phrase "almost everywhere". There simply isn't enough time in a single year.

 

They're easily behind Verizon by at least 100 - 150 cell sites just in Michigan alone. They'd have to file permits, sign leases, install backhaul, purchase / deliver / install gear, for two or three new cell sites a week, every single week, all year long, with zero setbacks or delays of any kind, just to catch up in *one* of these 50 states.

 

Even if they only match Sprint, even if they only cover *half* of Michigan (Their 300m pops vs Verizon's 303m pops), that's still at least another 50 cell sites, at least one a week, every week, in Michigan alone.

 

I hope I'm wrong. I hope they pull that off. And I've worked on some impressively quick tower constructs for WISPs, so I've seen firsthand what can be accomplished quickly if everything falls into place. But that timeline just seems completely, hopelessly, ludicrously unrealistic. 

 

- - - 

 

The only way I see them hitting this deadline is if they fake it. Throw up a single tower in a small town where Verizon uses six, and pretend it's equivalent coverage.

 

Remember, Legere's definition of everywhere is urban markets only.

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That doesn't explain why they can't do Hspa 1900 if they can add lte 1900.

 

Because they don't have enough spectrum? They still need to keep GSM 1900 up for voice calls.

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They're choosing 10x10 lte vs 5x5 lte 5x5 Hspa in a lot of places.

Why would they use 5x5 LTE and 5x5 hspa over one 10x10 LTE channel? I just don't see the point. Are volte calls not able to be handed off to gsm?
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Why would they use 5x5 LTE and 5x5 hspa over one 10x10 LTE channel? I just don't see the point. Are volte calls not able to be handed off to gsm?

On the same infrastructure, same frequency, Hspa 1900 will have greater range than lte 1900

 

And remember these are rural sites that have been 2g for ages so it's not likely lte 5x5 will get overwhelmed.

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On the same infrastructure, same frequency, Hspa 1900 will have greater range than lte 1900

I've been reading through this and several have mentioned that 1900 LTE has about the same range as 1900 GSM using the new equipment. Is that not really the case? I just don't see the point in adding hspa at all if they don't have to. A 10x10 LTE channel can handle more than a 5x5 LTE and a 5x5 hspa together.
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I've been reading through this and several have mentioned that 1900 LTE has about the same range as 1900 GSM using the new equipment. Is that not really the case? I just don't see the point in adding hspa at all if they don't have to.

Lte 1900 on the NEW base stations has same range as gsm 1900 on the OLD base stations.

 

For non volte phones and non lte phones.

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Lte 1900 on the NEW base stations has same range as gsm 1900 on the OLD base stations.

 

For non volte phones and non lte phones.

Does T-Mobile sell any phones that don't support LTE, or volte? If coverage isn't being decreased over the GSM footprint, I still don't see the point in adding hspa.
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Does T-Mobile sell any phones that don't support LTE, or volte? If coverage isn't being decreased over the GSM footprint, I still don't see the point in adding hspa.

T-Mobile sells plenty of phones that are GSM/UMTS only. Between MetroPCS and T-Mobile proper, it probably sells around 50% GSM/UMTS/LTE and 50% GSM/UMTS phones. GoSmart sells only GSM/UMTS phones.

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Lte 1900 on the NEW base stations has same range as gsm 1900 on the OLD base stations.

 

For non volte phones and non lte phones.

No. That is not the case everywhere. Range varies depending on just how old the equipment is.

 

The oldest equipments performance is extremely lackluster by today's standards and replacing it with even a ground mount setup would significantly improve performance. Newer legacy equipment will be minimal to little to no improvement or even perform worse.

 

GMO lte are extremely variable in performance and one person's observation of sites in one place will significantly different from someone's down the next city or across the state or in another market.

 

In any case GMO lte setups are extremely inferior to full rip and replaces and extremely hard to manage and troubleshoot whenever an issue occurs. GMO lte setups is not something to be brag at all when even El cheapo sprint doesn't do it because performance and reliability is not good.

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No. That is not the case everywhere. Range varies depending on just how old the equipment is.

 

The oldest equipments performance is extremely lackluster by today's standards and replacing it with even a ground mount setup would significantly improve performance. Newer legacy equipment will be minimal to little to no improvement or even perform worse.

 

GMO lte are extremely variable in performance and one person's observation of sites in one place will significantly different from someone's down the next city or across the state or in another market.

 

In any case GMO lte setups are extremely inferior to full rip and replaces and extremely hard to manage and troubleshoot whenever an issue occurs. GMO lte setups is not something to be brag at all when even El cheapo sprint doesn't do it because performance and reliability is not good.

TMO is doing it in two waves: first GMO then when it's time for 700a do full build.

Doing the antenna replacement is what takes longest right?

So given the current 700a situation, this saves on labor.

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TMO is doing it in two waves: first GMO then when it's time for 700a do full build.

Doing the antenna replacement is what takes longest right?

So given the current 700a situation, this saves on labor.

Tmobile GMO L1900 deployment is a medium to long term deployment. They are absolutely not touching anything on the tower structures for a long time until required to do so for L700 and they get the funding.

 

Right now, tmobile simply does not have any money to do a mass conversions of GMO sites to full builds even if they get millions more subscribers next year. There is a big reason they are deploying rural GMO lte sites and its because that's all they can afford.

 

Their funding is predominately geared to urban areas where ROI is significantly higher than rural areas and where their money for the L700 deployment will mostly be focused for the next year.

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T-Mobile sells plenty of phones that are GSM/UMTS only. Between MetroPCS and T-Mobile proper, it probably sells around 50% GSM/UMTS/LTE and 50% GSM/UMTS phones. GoSmart sells only GSM/UMTS phones.

That's surprising to me, but I guess it sort of makes sense. Hspa can still be a decent experience for a lot of people. I would assume at some point in the next year or two T-Mobile postpaid will be mostly LTE capable handsets, as prices continue to go down.

 

I still wouldn't think it would make sense to go and add hspa on 1900 if they were spectrum constrained and could only do a 5mhz LTE channel with umts. Sprint already gets tons of flak about their slow LTE, mostly thanks to their 5mhz deployment. It would be like Sprint opting for 3x3 LTE in 800 over 5x5, so they could add an evdo carrier (not that I'm sure if any phones even support evdo in smr).

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In any case GMO lte setups are extremely inferior to full rip and replaces and extremely hard to manage and troubleshoot whenever an issue occurs. GMO lte setups is not something to be brag at all when even El cheapo sprint doesn't do it because performance and reliability is not good.

And yet Fabian spent hours arguing that they are somehow equal full builds and that Sprint didn't do them because they didn't have good enough equipment.
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And yet Fabian spent hours arguing that they are somehow equal full builds and that Sprint didn't do them because they didn't have good enough equipment.

If they were equal to full builds Att and Verizon would've done them long ago but the fact that they do not even for extremely rural sites should tell you something about those types of setups.
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Tmobile GMO L1900 deployment is a medium to long term deployment. They are absolutely not touching anything on the tower structures for a long time until required to do so for L700 and they get the funding to do so.

 

Right now, tmobile simply does not have any money to do a mass conversions of GMO sites to full builds even if they get millions more subscribers next year. There is a big reason they are deploying rural GMO lte sites and its because that's all they can afford.

 

Their funding is predominately geared to urban areas where ROI is significantly higher than rural areas and where their money for the L700 deployment will mostly be focused for the next year.

They have 264mil lte and keeping CAPEX constant at $4-5ish billion. What else besides rural lte can they possibly spend it on?
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They have 264mil lte and keeping CAPEX constant at $4-5ish billion. What else besides rural lte can they possibly spend it on?

 

Deploying L1900 and LTE 700 over existing sites which requires another round of site visits and going through a ton of bureaucracy once more for both tower top radio (L1900 + 700) and antennas additions (700) and ground modfications in additioning to reinforcing the racks on the towers. Tmobiles Ericsson AIR and Nokia 4x MIMO setups are very top heavy with about 200-300 pounds of equipment per sector. 

 

Then there's equipment upkeep and decomissioning of MetroPCS equipment and the deployment of  small cells and upgraded DAS systems in addition to anything T-mobile is cooking up with Nokia and Ericsson. 

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If they were equal to full builds Att and Verizon would've done them long ago but the fact that they do not even for extremely rural sites should tell you something about those types of setups.

Didn't Verizon up until last year have LTE700 setup without RRUs? Even now a lot of their LTE700 sites don't have RRUs.
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Didn't Verizon up until last year have LTE700 setup without RRUs? Even now lot of their sites don't have RRUs.

 

Any XLTE sites they have will have RRUS from ALU and ERC.

 

ATT and VZW did not reuse old antennas and coax jumpers for their original overlay. It was all new antennas and jumpers from the cabinets (radios located inside cabinets). That's why a lot of older VZW sites have 3-4 antennas per sector. Each antenna would usually be for one specific technology from previous deployments. 

 

As i mentioned previously they are now completely tearing down their sites starting from the oldest ones with new Rel 9/10 compliant equipment and new antennas and radios (or antenna integrated radios) on top of the towers.  In addition I've been noticing a lot of recent (within the last year) deployments have orders for Band 13/Band 5 RRUs. 

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Deploying L1900 and LTE 700 over existing sites which requires another round of site visits and going through a ton of bureaucracy once more for both tower top radio (L1900 + 700) and antennas additions (700) and ground modfications in additioning to reinforcing the racks on the towers. Tmobiles Ericsson AIR and Nokia 4x MIMO setups are very top heavy with about 200-300 pounds of equipment per sector.

 

Then there's equipment upkeep and decomissioning of MetroPCS equipment and the deployment of small cells and upgraded DAS systems in addition to anything T-mobile is cooking up with Nokia and Ericsson.

My point is that it seems you're implying that TMO doesn't have enough $ to properly rip replace but now you're saying they do?
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My point is that it seems you're implying that TMO doesn't have enough $ to properly rip replace but now you're saying they do?

 

 

They have 264mil lte and keeping CAPEX constant at $4-5ish billion. What else besides rural lte can they possibly spend it on?

 

Tmobile GMO L1900 deployment is a medium to long term deployment. They are absolutely not touching anything on the tower structures for a long time until required to do so for L700 and they get the funding.

 

Right now, tmobile simply does not have any money to do a mass conversions of GMO sites to full builds even if they get millions more subscribers next year. There is a big reason they are deploying rural GMO lte sites and its because that's all they can afford.

 

Their funding is predominately geared to urban areas where ROI is significantly higher than rural areas and where their money for the L700 deployment will mostly be focused for the next year.

 

 

Deploying L1900 and LTE 700 over existing sites which requires another round of site visits and going through a ton of bureaucracy once more for both tower top radio (L1900 + 700) and antennas additions (700) and ground modfications in additioning to reinforcing the racks on the towers. Tmobiles Ericsson AIR and Nokia 4x MIMO setups are very top heavy with about 200-300 pounds of equipment per sector. 

 

Then there's equipment upkeep and decomissioning of MetroPCS equipment and the deployment of  small cells and upgraded DAS systems in addition to anything T-mobile is cooking up with Nokia and Ericsson. 

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